By James Mutua
A new report by the ASAL Humanitarian Network, a coalition of local and national humanitarian organizations working across Kenya’s Arid and Semi Arid Lands, warns that millions of Kenyans could face worsening hunger if the upcoming long rains underperform.
According to the report, Kenya’s northern and arid counties are entering a dangerous new phase of drought and food insecurity, with 3.27 million people currently facing high acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 and above, across the ASAL regions. This represents 18.5 percent of the affected population, nearly one in five people now in urgent need of assistance.
AHN reports that 2,873,380 people are classified in Crisis, IPC Phase 3, while 399,850 are already in Emergency, IPC Phase 4, one step below famine conditions. Although no population is currently classified in Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5, the expansion of Emergency level food insecurity signals a rapidly narrowing margin before famine thresholds are crossed.
The report warns that if the March to May 2026 long rains underperform, the number of people in Crisis or worse could rise to 3.69 million, with Emergency cases increasing to 607,437. In that scenario, 20 percent of the ASAL population would face high acute food insecurity.
Mandera County illustrates the severity of the crisis. Following the poor performance of the October to December 2025 short rains, the county has entered the Alarm phase of drought. More than 335,000 people in Mandera require humanitarian assistance, and the nutrition situation has reached the highest severity classification.
Mandera is now classified in IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5, Extremely Critical, the most severe category under the IPC Acute Malnutrition scale. An estimated 86,360 children aged 6 to 59 months require treatment for acute malnutrition in Mandera alone, including 20,165 children suffering from Severe Acute Malnutrition.
In addition, more than 17,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women and girls require urgent nutrition support, underscoring the growing intergenerational risk of malnutrition.
Nationally, the nutrition crisis is escalating. Across Kenya, 810,871 children aged 6 to 59 months now require management of acute malnutrition, reflecting a significant increase compared to mid 2025 assessments. Within ASAL counties alone, nearly 500,000 children require treatment, and more than 113,000 are classified as Severe Acute Malnutrition cases.
The drivers of the crisis are cumulative and compounding. Consecutive below average rainfall seasons have reduced pasture regeneration and weakened livestock body conditions. Milk production, a primary protein source in pastoral diets, has declined sharply. Staple food prices remain elevated, distances to water sources have increased, and disease burden continues to strain fragile health systems.
At the same time, nutrition commodity stock outs and limited outreach coverage in remote pastoral areas are constraining early treatment.
Refugee hosting camps are also under significant stress. Currently, 430,000 people, about 60 percent of camp populations, are in Crisis or Emergency, including 186,456 in Emergency conditions. Any disruption in assistance pipelines could rapidly escalate severity.
The report further notes that if the March to May rainy season is delayed, poorly distributed, or below average, pasture regeneration will remain inadequate, livestock productivity will decline further, and acute malnutrition rates are expected to rise. Under such conditions, more households are likely to shift from Crisis to Emergency, and localized catastrophic outcomes could emerge in the worst affected areas.
AHN emphasizes that Kenya is not yet in famine. However, with nearly 400,000 people already in Emergency conditions, nutrition classified in Phase 5 in Mandera, and projections rising to 3.69 million people in Crisis or worse if rains fail, the risk trajectory is unmistakable.
According to the Kenya Red Cross, Kenya’s ASAL counties are experiencing one of the most severe droughts in recent years. Water sources have dried up, food insecurity is rapidly escalating, and vulnerable populations, especially children and mothers, are bearing the greatest burden.
The Kenya Red Cross says families walk an average of 6.9 kilometres daily in search of water and warns that without urgent intervention, the humanitarian toll will continue to rise.
