By Business Editor
The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA), in partnership with the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) and KPMG, hosted the 2026 Economic Outlook Forum in Nairobi, bringing together senior business leaders to assess the year ahead. The forum projected Kenya’s GDP growth at between 4.9% and 5.2%, signalling a recovery after slower expansion in 2024.
Participants noted that while the outlook reflects resilience, growth remains below the country’s pre-pandemic average of 6%. Leaders said the macroeconomic environment is stabilising, supported by inflation easing into the 3% to 5% range, but cautioned that businesses must remain agile in the face of external shocks and fiscal pressures.
“Businesses are operating in a landscape marked by global uncertainty, shifting trade dynamics and rapid technological transformation,” said KEPSA Vice Chair Brenda Mbathi. “Yet within these challenges lie significant opportunities. The private sector remains central to unlocking inclusive growth through investment, job creation and productivity.”
Analysts described 2026 as a year of steady recovery paired with deliberate fiscal consolidation. While inflation has moderated, they warned that food and fuel prices remain vulnerable to global market volatility, posing a continued risk to household and business stability.
KPMG Tax Partner and Head of Private Enterprise in Africa Sandeep Main placed Kenya’s outlook within a global context, noting that world growth is expected to edge up to 2.7%. Across Africa, growth is projected to rise from 3.9% in 2025 to 4.1% by 2027. Main stressed the importance of strategic sourcing as firms respond to fragile supply chains linked to US-China technology tensions.
The forum also urged companies to diversify financing options and make greater use of capital markets. NSE Chief Executive Frank Mwiti warned that many firms continue to overlook available funding channels.
“Capital has a memory. It remembers markets that opened when things were hard and those who chose transparency and integrity,” Mwiti said. “I still don’t understand why businesses are not utilising the massive opportunities of the capital markets to raise capital. We intend to work closely with KEPSA to help businesses access and sustain capital in 2026.”
Speakers said the 2026 business environment will be shaped by geopolitical volatility, rare-earth export disputes and shifting financing costs driven by central bank policy changes. These pressures are fuelling technology-focused mergers and acquisitions while increasing compliance demands through tighter ESG requirements and cross-border tax reforms.
Although returning to 6% growth will take time, a stable shilling and easing inflation create favourable conditions for businesses that prioritise transparency, innovation, and active participation in the capital markets.
